The Second Dark Age
Look around you and most of what you see will be created either from or using crude oil. Oil is used as a fuel in production, as a base component of plastics, in transportation of good and raw materials. There is no aspect of the western world that is not directly impacted by oil.
It's not difficult to see why. One barrel of oil is the equivalent to 46 gallons of gasoline, with an energy of 6 billion Jules of heat. That's the equivalent of five labourers working 12 hours a day, every day, for a year.
That black stuff is truly a wonderful thing and without it there would not have been the rapid growth of prosperity that powered the 20th century. But, even ignoring the problems of greenhouse gases there is a big problem with oil.
It's running out.
Currently mankind is using about 87 million barrels of oil a day, which is about 10 billion litres and, while there is quite a lot of oil left in the world, we are very close to the limit of the rate at which we can extract it. This peak rate, called 'peak oil', indicates the point at which we can no longer increase supply to meet demand and at which production will actually start to drop. Current estimates for this indicate it will be around 2010.
Think about that. Historically, as the population has grown, and we have found new and wonderful things to do with oil, we have simply pumped more of it out of the ground. More people = more demand = more oil = more prosperity. What happens when we can't pump more oil?
This is not something the world has had to face before. In the past, as demand increased, pressure was applied to the oil producers and they increased 'production' to satisfy the demand and keep the prices down. But when we reach the peak oil level there is no more slack in the system. Every litre pumped is used. Any disruption is immediate.
As it currently stands any disruption to oil production could well have a severe impact on the way that we in the developed world live, eat, heat our homes, and travel to work. Terrorism is a serious threat. Hurricanes are a serious threat. Accidents are a serious threat. Is it any surprise that Ras Tanura on the Persian Gulf, the largest oil terminal in the world, is defended like a high security military base.
But what of future growth?
Its expected that by 2050 the world will contain nearly 9 billion people. But there will be no extra fuel produced! I would expect that by then fuel will be rationed. But between now and then we are going to see supply drag behind demand by an ever growing margin. Given that 70% of current oil production is used in transport is easy to see that transport and heating fuel prices will simply rise uncontrollably until transport demand falls to a manageable level.
It looks pretty bleak. Most of the western world is based upon rapid road transport of goods, as the fuel prices continue to grow it will cause transport costs to rocket and the price of the good transported to rise in step. As the fuel supply becomes limited the general transport infrastructure used during the growth of the last 50 years will grind to a halt. Commuting to work will simply stop as pay will not be able to keep up with escalating transport costs.
What can be done to solve the problem?
With the main use of oil being in transport, this should be the primary focus of any attempted solution. Several alternatives have been suggested over recent years including bio-fuels, hydrogen and electricity. However, each of these has its problems. Bio-fuels currently use food stocks which results in food shortages and high food prices, Hydrogen from renewable sources has problems with storage and transport, and electricity is usually generated from fossil fuels such as coal or natural gas and has major greenhouse gas implications.
What is needed is for the governments of the developed world to get off their collective asses and begin to fund some serious development of technology and infrastructure to resolve the problems. Market forces are not enough to solve this problem. Only a concerted multi-government action will do this. It will require a concerted effort to rapidly create a new fuel source and make it available globally in a very short timescale. The world's oil infrastructure has been growing since the end of the 19th century; I don't think we can wait another hundred years for market forces to do the job for us.
The time for governments to act is now. Failure to do so may well result in the whole world falling into a new dark age.
Images are of Ifat.
It's not difficult to see why. One barrel of oil is the equivalent to 46 gallons of gasoline, with an energy of 6 billion Jules of heat. That's the equivalent of five labourers working 12 hours a day, every day, for a year.
That black stuff is truly a wonderful thing and without it there would not have been the rapid growth of prosperity that powered the 20th century. But, even ignoring the problems of greenhouse gases there is a big problem with oil.
It's running out.
Currently mankind is using about 87 million barrels of oil a day, which is about 10 billion litres and, while there is quite a lot of oil left in the world, we are very close to the limit of the rate at which we can extract it. This peak rate, called 'peak oil', indicates the point at which we can no longer increase supply to meet demand and at which production will actually start to drop. Current estimates for this indicate it will be around 2010.
Think about that. Historically, as the population has grown, and we have found new and wonderful things to do with oil, we have simply pumped more of it out of the ground. More people = more demand = more oil = more prosperity. What happens when we can't pump more oil?
This is not something the world has had to face before. In the past, as demand increased, pressure was applied to the oil producers and they increased 'production' to satisfy the demand and keep the prices down. But when we reach the peak oil level there is no more slack in the system. Every litre pumped is used. Any disruption is immediate.
As it currently stands any disruption to oil production could well have a severe impact on the way that we in the developed world live, eat, heat our homes, and travel to work. Terrorism is a serious threat. Hurricanes are a serious threat. Accidents are a serious threat. Is it any surprise that Ras Tanura on the Persian Gulf, the largest oil terminal in the world, is defended like a high security military base.
But what of future growth?
Its expected that by 2050 the world will contain nearly 9 billion people. But there will be no extra fuel produced! I would expect that by then fuel will be rationed. But between now and then we are going to see supply drag behind demand by an ever growing margin. Given that 70% of current oil production is used in transport is easy to see that transport and heating fuel prices will simply rise uncontrollably until transport demand falls to a manageable level.
It looks pretty bleak. Most of the western world is based upon rapid road transport of goods, as the fuel prices continue to grow it will cause transport costs to rocket and the price of the good transported to rise in step. As the fuel supply becomes limited the general transport infrastructure used during the growth of the last 50 years will grind to a halt. Commuting to work will simply stop as pay will not be able to keep up with escalating transport costs.
What can be done to solve the problem?
With the main use of oil being in transport, this should be the primary focus of any attempted solution. Several alternatives have been suggested over recent years including bio-fuels, hydrogen and electricity. However, each of these has its problems. Bio-fuels currently use food stocks which results in food shortages and high food prices, Hydrogen from renewable sources has problems with storage and transport, and electricity is usually generated from fossil fuels such as coal or natural gas and has major greenhouse gas implications.
What is needed is for the governments of the developed world to get off their collective asses and begin to fund some serious development of technology and infrastructure to resolve the problems. Market forces are not enough to solve this problem. Only a concerted multi-government action will do this. It will require a concerted effort to rapidly create a new fuel source and make it available globally in a very short timescale. The world's oil infrastructure has been growing since the end of the 19th century; I don't think we can wait another hundred years for market forces to do the job for us.
The time for governments to act is now. Failure to do so may well result in the whole world falling into a new dark age.
Images are of Ifat.
posted by Richard at 12:46 PM
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